The critical influence on decisions made in Belarus concerning the war against Ukraine rests not with the self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko, but with dictator Putin.
This perspective was shared by journalist Vitaliy Portnikov on air at Espresso.
According to him, if the Kremlin decides to utilize Belarusian territory for a new offensive into Ukraine, Lukashenko’s stance will be of little consequence.
Concurrently, the journalist emphasized that he currently observes no indications of such a scenario being prepared.
«I do not yet see signs of this, but that does not mean these signs will not emerge, or that a contingent of Russian troops will not appear in Belarus attempting to break through to Kyiv,» he remarked.
In his opinion, missile and drone attacks originating from Belarusian territory remain a more plausible threat at present.
Portnikov also highlighted the potential risks for Belarus itself should it become more actively involved in the war.
«If anything flies towards us from Belarusian territory, we will gain a legitimate opportunity to strike at the same refinery in Mozyr, which Lukashenko himself advised Zelensky to target back in 2022,» the journalist noted.
He added that the Belarusian economy is considerably more vulnerable than Russia’s.
«Belarus does not possess the same economic capacity as Russia. A few well-placed strikes, even by drones, could simply cripple the Belarusian economy, including sectors vital to the Russian military-industrial complex,» Portnikov commented.
However, he did not rule out that the Kremlin might be motivated by factors beyond purely military logic.
The journalist believes that dictator Putin may be interested in escalating the conflict between Ukrainians and Belarusians.
«Putin might act illogically and believe that, on the contrary, it is necessary to further immerse Belarus in this war to create animosity between Ukrainians and Belarusians,» he suggested.
Portnikov explained that such a scenario could involve civilian casualties in Belarus, subsequently fueling mutual hostility.
«So that Ukrainians strike at Belarus, civilians would perish there, leading to certain emotions directed at Ukrainians, and vice versa,» the journalist stated.
He underscored that such a policy aligns with the traditional imperial principle of ‘divide and conquer.’
«This could also be part of that devilish plan,» Portnikov opined.
The journalist posited that the Kremlin might even sacrifice specific economic interests to achieve long-term political objectives.
«Let’s sacrifice this oil refinery in Mozyr, but in doing so, alienate Ukrainians from Belarusians and create conditions for their conflict for years to come,» he illustrated the potential reasoning of the Russian leadership.
According to Portnikov, inciting animosity between peoples is one of the customary instruments of imperial policy.
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