The Ukrainian economy is expected to see a moderate recovery in 2026–2027 amidst the ongoing war, while Russia will remain in a phase of sluggish growth and gradual deceleration. This is according to an updated forecast by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The OECD anticipates that Ukraine’s economic momentum will remain positive but restrained in 2026–2027 due to the war’s repercussions, a labor deficit, and a high dependence on external financial aid.
The organization’s projection indicates that Ukraine’s GDP growth rate will slow to 1% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027. Key risks include intensified attacks on energy and civilian infrastructure, as well as persistent structural economic constraints, notably a shortage of labor.
“Following a downturn at the start of 2026, growth is likely to be subdued in the near term due to rising global energy prices and damage from Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure,” the document states.
Against this backdrop, Russia is showing weaker performance. After a period of war-driven overheating, its economy has significantly decelerated, from approximately 4.9% in 2024 to around 1% in 2025. According to the OECD, in 2026, the Russian economy will continue to grow at a slow pace owing to sanctions, tight monetary policy, and labor market limitations.
Specifically, GDP growth in Russia for 2026 is forecast at a modest 0.5%. In 2027, the pace might slightly accelerate to 0.8%, but the overall trend will remain weak compared to previous years.
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