Ukraine has managed to leverage the strategy of a war of attrition against Russia to its benefit. This is highlighted in a column by American military historian John Gentile and political scientist Andrew Radin for The Hill.
They recalled that in the initial years following the full-scale invasion, it was believed that the natural, economic, and human resources of the Russian Federation would be its strong suit if the war dragged on. This was particularly true given the Russian society’s willingness to endure immense human losses.
However, according to the authors, reality has unfolded differently. It turns out that Putin’s war economy cannot sustain military actions and is “crumbling” in the face of Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign. They mention the reality of rumors regarding discontent among Russian oligarchs over this situation.
The authors added that while a swift defeat of the adversary is the benchmark in military science, historical examples indicate that most wars have been won through the prolonged weakening of the enemy’s manpower and equipment. This is precisely what Ukraine has been doing for two years, destroying Russian soldiers faster than the army can replenish them. Furthermore, the economic costs of the war are being maximized.
“Ukraine’s war of attrition strategy extends to Russia’s interior regions, where strikes on oil and gas infrastructure continue. Such attacks reduce oil exports, weakening the Russian economy’s capacity to finance the war,” the article states.
The answer to whether this will force Putin to compromise remains open for now. The Russian army currently offers no internal resistance to its leadership, despite suffering daily losses of around 300 individuals during combat operations.
Drawing on the history of wars, particularly World War I, the authors note that betting on a turning point through a strategy of attrition can yield results. For this to happen, they believe, Ukraine must continue to adhere to its strategy, sustain or even intensify long-range strikes, and its partners must continue to provide support.
Reading now: It is premature to talk about a swift end to the war or Russia’s defeat, – Zaluzhny.
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